Facebook is the next AOL.
AOL was big, became a giant, and then was the supreme ruler of all things media.
True story.
You know, AOL, they used to sell dial-up by the minute, you may have heard of them.
Their latest acquisition was The Huffington Post for $315 million.
Ringing any bells?
If you think back to the days of 14.4kbps modems, you may remember that AOL was America On-Line. You can see they really lacked a global vision at their inception. My how they’ve grown up …
America On-Line was about selling a simple dial-up service with a “special” walled-garden type of internet service. They brought all the popular internet services and built it into one slick package. Instant messaging, photo sharing, email, news, weather and security tools.
All that success. All that buzz. Then …
America On-Line died.
Sure, it’s this multi-million dollar corporation now, but they’re certainly no longer in the business of selling dial-up.
Facebook is the next America On-Line.
It too, will die.
This is the future …
Remember Facebook? It was a website … do they still have a website? Anyway, we used to put our photos there and tell all of our friends what we were having for breakfast … I had a farm once, too … good times.
Go ahead. Call me crazy.
Remember AOL Keywords?
Right there at the bottom. They would use them on television commercials, too. UPS commercials used to crack me up:
Visit us online at http://www.ups.com … or AOL Keyword: UPS.
Ya. They used to say the “http”, part. Those were the days …
So, now that I’ve totally revealed that I’m just an old guy with a keyboard, let’s carry on.
I’m not saying Facebook is going away. By no means is Facebook the next GeoCities. Facebook has left its cultural mark and its effects will be felt for a long, long time, but the Facebook we know today will die.
Cause of death: Popularity.
An ironic death, for sure.
Facebook was launched on exclusivity, and has now become the largest social network in the world with 500 million users.
Through its evolution, it has done well to shift and change and keep things fresh. They’ve gone from rigid status updates that was a center-piece of Facebook, to no status updates. They’ve added gaming, chat, email, and have engaged in talks with Skype. It has become a one-stop internet destination.
Facebook Keyword: AOL.
The social scheme of Facebook is breaking. Let’s not waste words:
I don’t want to hang-out with my friends while my Mom in the room.
Don’t get me wrong, I love my Mom, but Facebook has gone from hanging-out at your friends house to walking around Walmart. No matter what you do, you can never feel cool at Walmart. Facebook was a private social network, now it is a public social network. Moreover, keeping up with 100-1000 friends is far from personal.
Now, I understand Facebook has different user levels and privacy settings, but eventually your Aunt Jane is going to be bugging you at Thanksgiving about “why you won’t let her see any of your photos and friends.” Why? Because your Aunt Jane lives on Facebook. There’s no hiding behind the tech anymore, she knows how it works.
Up and coming social network tools like Yammer offer what Facebook lost. A place where you can be yourself, network with friends, and not worry about having to unfriend Aunt Jane. LinkedIn does the same thing, but for work. Social networking is becoming segmented, because our lives are segmented. There are even social network apps for churches.
Facebook is the next America On-Line.
It’s too big to become what it once was. It will continue to evolve and be available, just as AOL is still available to download, but it will not have the force that it has, today. It’s impression has been great, but its momentum will depart.
Social networking will remain, but Facebook will die.
Kevin says
I think it’ll be a while before we see this happen, but I don’t doubt it. The bubble isn’t done stretching yet.
Stuart says
Great article, its good to keep this stuff in mind for sure.
Just a quick issue, AOL was called America Online, not American. Probably not important, just something I noticed.
Keep up the good work!
Eric Dye says
You’re totally right about that … I guess it’s been a while since I’ve seen/written/spoke it out-loud … LOL! Thank you!
PaulSteinbrueck says
I agree to a point. I have segmented my social networking – Facebook for family & friends, LinkedIn for business, Twitter for networking, influence and content sharing. If Facebook would…
1) make it easier to post updates/content to specific groups
2) allow 3rd party apps to display updates in the same way Twitter has fostered apps like TweetDeck and HootSuite
I think they could pretty much eliminate the need for anyone to use any other social network.
Eric Dye says
Good points.
You are the right path, but I’m afraid it might get a little tricky with all of those social circles … however, if they could simplify it … hmmmm …
Thanks for sharing, man.
Ben says
Correction: AOL is America On-line, not American On-Line.
Interesting take; it will be interesting to see if Facebook doesn’t learn from the mistakes of many others in the past…
Eric Dye says
Totally fixed. You guys are the BEST! Seriously, you are.
Thank you.
🙂
Darren Ethier says
Something to keep an eye on is convofy.com. I’ve been using it with my clients and it’s awesome. It could be the next great communication/social networking tool (that’s not walmarticized). Would love to see what 8bit thinks of it.
Eric Dye says
Nice lead.
We’ll take a look.
😉
youngdesign says
I think people will begin to curate Facebook themselves.
The tech savvy have already started – but the ‘Walmart folk’ will soon catch up.
When first signing up to Facebook, people go friend crazy… but those that signed up years ago (myself and most of my circle) have all since trimmed our friend lists extensively.
I went from 400+ to the magic 150 several months ago, and I know most of my friendship circle has too.
Facebook will die one day… but then so will Google… and Twitter.
It shouldn’t be a shock.
What will be interesting is how quickly it happens once it starts… the world has entrenched these websites into our lifestyles – it will be painful to remove them.
Eric Dye says
Of course, everything dies.
I wouldn’t put Google in with Facebook, after all, Yahoo! is still with us.
Facebook will be gone sooner than most think …
Laurinda says
But doesn’t it create excitement as to what will replace it? AOL died and now it seems archaic; yet just 10 years ago it was still cool. MySpace came and went. I can’t keep up with all the new social media sites popping up. In 10 years who knows what the new mega-site will be.
Eric Dye says
I know, right!
Joshua Skogerboe says
“You-Twit-Face.” That’s my guess.
Nathan says
I’m not ready to read Facebook its last rites just yet, not while I go there for my Tetris fix, but it’s an interesting comparison. Won’t people just get better at creating rules and boundaries, segmentation like, within the boundaries of Facebook – for convenience sake.
Why sign up for a new service when you can learn new elements of the existing one? Especially a service that has essentially replaced Flickr, Delicious, and other web 2.0 services… it’s just so convenient – and isn’t that the ultimate indicator of whether a service will live or die?
Eric Dye says
Indeed, it won’t go away, neither has America On-Line (download it today!). Something will eclipse it, or the next generation will ignore it. Its death won’t be sudden, it will be like slowly letting air out of a balloon.
Jeremy says
lol I will call you crazy.. lol I agree with tha majority here, I dont think its done yet. I do believe it will die at some point mostly like My __ did, but only because it could change fast enough to keep up with the Trend.
At this point FB is creating the trends. until something comes around that makes social networking easier than chatting, posting, viewing, all that other stuff on your mobile devices, then FB has the throne..
Jeremy says
Also, Google killed AOL Keywords. but for some reason my local news station still uses “keywords” my kids are so confused..
Eric Dye says
That’s funny 😆
Eric Dye says
It won’t be the ability to deliver tech services that will kill Facebook, it will be the broad user base.
Kevin says
I’ve noticed a remarkable difference in the commenters and users of our church Facebook page and my personal Facebook account. These people are not the ones I really want to engage. So, I’m soon heading elsewhere to where I can find those I want.
The culprit? You said it best: popularity. Too popular = too muddy.
Eric Dye says
True story.
PaulSteinbrueck says
One thing I would add is that we do have an interesting “it’s cool to be a contrarian” dynamic in the U.S. A lot of innovators and trend setters can’t stand to be in the majority. As soon as “everyone is doing it,” they don’t want to be there. They bail on popular music, popular restaurants, popular fashion, and popular technology even if it’s good, and seek out what’s next. The early adopters follow them, and pretty soon there’s a sense that what’s popular is stale and dying.
Facebook is at that place where it’s popular, everyone is there, and the innovators don’t want to be there anymore.
Eric Dye says
There’s some truth, there. It’s like punk and ska bands, they do better before becoming popular.
None the less, the decrease in use will be due to Facebook becoming more of a public social network, oppose to a cool place for friends to hang-out.
Brent says
I cannot wait for this social networking crap to die. Kinda is in the same category as texting to me (even though i text). Whatever happened to real communication with emotion or effort (lol is not an emotion)? Like calling on the phone or knocking on someones door or even sending mail (no not email). Its rediculous how technology has engulfed most peoples lives and some even say they couldnt live without it. How sad is that? Its also rediculous how much time people spend in front of a screen of some sort wether it be a phone, tv or computer moniter. I myself am guilty but am working on it. Hey…. as long as there are distractions right? Then everything is fine.
Eric Dye says
What? I’m sorry. What did you say? I was busy checking my text messages while cruising Facebook during my favorite TV show.
We could all use more “unplugged” time, for sure.